Ombogo Jr / The Digest

The Overnight Telex

| 4 Nov 2026

CRUDE & PRODUCTS

Brent dropped to $94.81 a barrel, down from $117.64, a 19.4% slide that dragged the whole products complex with it. RBOB gasoline fell 17.4% to 976 USD/t and ULSD gasoil gave up 12.3% to 1,315 USD a tonne. The odd part: Iran's seaborne crude exports have now sat at zero for a second straight month, and the barrel fell anyway, with traders this week pointing more at AI-capex nerves than crude supply for the move.

COPPER

Copper is holding above $14,000 a tonne after touching a two-and-a-half-month low, down 0.4% on the day to 6.435 USD a pound. One analyst told Reuters the metal is simply "catching up" to losses already booked across AI and semiconductor equities. On the supply side, JPMorgan is now modelling US output more than doubling as new mines and expansions come through, cost and permitting hurdles notwithstanding.

FERTILISER

Urea eased 0.8% to 442.5 USD/t, DAP held flat at 797.5, and potash has no clean print today. The hard fact worth flagging: an earthquake rattled Mosaic's Saskatchewan potash mine near Esterhazy in the same week the company reported weaker quarterly earnings.

DRC COPPERBELT

Lualaba province now counts 114 formally mapped artisanal zones after folding in 33 new ones. In Kinshasa, electricity minister Sakombi Molendo and the mining cadastre's Popol Mabolia are exploring financing energy infrastructure directly off mining-rights revenue. Cobalt itself sat still at 33,525 USD/t.

SUGAR / KENYA

Sugar #11 fell 4.8% to 407 USD/t. In Nairobi, President Ruto announced Kenya has exited sugar safeguard measures after 25 years, citing rising local production.

GRAIN & FREIGHT

Wheat ticked up half a percent to 223 USD/t even as USDA's FAS projects record grain ending stocks in Ukraine, war-suppressed exports leaving grain piling up rather than moving. The corridor shift shows in the ships carrying it: Panamax vessels were Q3's biggest losers as trade patterns favoured smaller Supramax and Handysize tonnage, even as the Baltic Dry Index climbed 104 points to 2,694 on the day.

Also on the tape

Sulphur ticked up 0.2% to 792 USD/t on firmer Chinese pricing. Potash remains unprinted. Zambia's sovereign rating got a lift from Moody's this week. Gem Diamonds raised its 2026 outlook on a big-stone windfall out of Lesotho, and Colombia's miners are digesting a regulatory reset that could revive billions in stalled projects.