Three things worth your attention this morning, and a strip of what else moved.
1. Congo's quotas are working, and the market still isn't rewarding it
Glencore's cobalt output nearly halved last quarter, a casualty of the Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota regime now biting in full force in its third quarter production report. Copper output at the same operations rose over the period, and the group now sees its full-year 2026 production landing at the low end of guidance. None of that has stopped the cobalt price sliding, which sits well below where it traded a month ago. A quota meant to tighten supply and support price is, for now, doing only the first half of its job.
2. A $2 billion urea plant is heading for Mozambique
ETG Group, the continent's largest fertiliser trader, is eyeing a $2 billion urea plant in Mozambique, a project that would add meaningful new nitrogen capacity on the east African coast and reduce the continent's reliance on Gulf and Black Sea cargoes for one of its biggest fertiliser imports. Details on financing, feedstock gas supply and timeline are still thin, but the scale alone, on a coastline already courted for gas-to-products plays, makes this worth tracking as it firms up.
3. Gulf fertiliser exports are down 70 percent, nine months into the disruption
Fertiliser shipments out of the Middle East have fallen by roughly 70 to 75 percent as the Iran-linked disruption to Hormuz transit drags into its ninth month. Saudi, Qatari, UAE and Omani producers have effectively been boxed out of their normal export lanes, forcing buyers to look to Egypt, North Africa and the Baltic for cover. The longer this runs, the more structural the rerouting becomes, and the harder it will be to unwind once the strait reopens.
Also crossing the desk
- Chile's copper output sank to its lowest quarterly level in at least two decades in the three months to September, a theme that has now dominated the week's copper coverage and gets one line here.
- The Baltic Dry Index extended its run to a third straight session, closing at 2,714.
- Chinese sulphur slipped to 804 USD/t, a 3.7 percent drop on the prior print, while DAP eased to 793.5 USD/t.
- Washington is pushing Lithuania to reopen Klaipeda to Belarusian potash, even as Dubai's DP World holds talks to develop Canada's Port of Churchill, two separate moves on the same question of where sanctioned-adjacent potash tonnage finds a home.