https://ombogojr.com/digest/ Commodities, markets, and the occasional map — every edition of The Digest. en Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:06:03 GMT https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/the-corridor-sheet-25-august-2026-08-25/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/the-corridor-sheet-25-august-2026-08-25/ Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:06:03 GMT Michael Ombogo Four routes carried the day's news. Read them as freight, not as geography. Kasumbalesa to Solwezi Congo's transport minister, Jean-Pierre Bemba, spent Monday reviving a project the border has been promised for a decade: a dry port at Kasumbalesa valued at 600 million dollars, meant to take the truc… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/six-questions-24-august-2026-08-24/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/six-questions-24-august-2026-08-24/ Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:16:15 GMT Michael Ombogo Monday's prints came in strange shapes, so the desk put the questions to itself. Why did petrol fall eight per cent on a day crude rose? RBOB gasoline printed 2.9872 USD/gal against 3.2551 the session before, a drop of 8.2%, or 1,066 USD per tonne. Diesel went with it, ULSD off 4.0% to 4.2758 USD/ga… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/the-sunday-letter-23-august-2026-08-23/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/the-sunday-letter-23-august-2026-08-23/ Sun, 23 Aug 2026 09:57:06 GMT Michael Ombogo Sunday, and the screens did most of the talking. Four things worth your attention before Monday, and one number that moved without anybody claiming credit for it. Chicago Wheat was the biggest honest move on the board. The CBOT front month settled at 699.25 US cents a bushel, up from 664.50, a gain… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/wire-brief-22-august-2026-08-22/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/wire-brief-22-august-2026-08-22/ Sat, 22 Aug 2026 09:56:19 GMT Michael Ombogo Six items off the overnight desk, in the order they will cost or make money. GRAIN / BLACK SEA Chicago wheat settled at 699.25 US cents a bushel, up 3.6% from 674.75, roughly 257 USD a tonne, the sharpest single-day move on the grain board this week. The trade press now describes the war as having e… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/by-when-it-bites-21-august-2026-08-21/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/by-when-it-bites-21-august-2026-08-21/ Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:06:18 GMT Michael Ombogo Sorted today by when each file actually lands on a book, nearest first. This week Wheat did the work. CBOT settled at 700 US cents a bushel, 257 dollars a tonne, up 3.7 per cent on the session, after the International Grains Council cut projected 2026-27 output for both corn and wheat on hot weather… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/three-files-20-august-islamabad-s-sugar-zambia-s-missing-ton-2026-08-20/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/three-files-20-august-islamabad-s-sugar-zambia-s-missing-ton-2026-08-20/ Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:05:49 GMT Michael Ombogo Three files worth the ink today, and a sugar market that moved 5.9% while nobody was looking at it. Pakistan wants to sell India 1.2 million tonnes of sugar A senior figure at the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association has asked Islamabad for permission to export up to 1.2 million tonnes of surplus sugar… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/figure-first-19-august-2026-08-19/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/figure-first-19-august-2026-08-19/ Wed, 19 Aug 2026 10:03:11 GMT Michael Ombogo 2% in 2027, rising to 10% by 2037: Brazil legislates a floor under its own fertilizer Brazil's Senate passed Profert (PL 699/2023) on 11 August and the bill now sits with President Lula for signature. It bundles a tax credit for domestic fertilizer production, a BNDES credit line for plant construct… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/ranked-by-shock-18-august-2026-08-18/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/ranked-by-shock-18-august-2026-08-18/ Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:03:56 GMT Michael Ombogo Ordering the day by how far each print travelled rather than by how loudly it was reported. The grain board wins by a distance. 1. Wheat, 6.2% in one session Chicago wheat went from 652.75 to 693.25 US cents a bushel, or 255 dollars a tonne, the largest single-session move anywhere on the board and… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/ask-the-desk-17-august-five-questions-answered-with-prints-2026-08-17/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/ask-the-desk-17-august-five-questions-answered-with-prints-2026-08-17/ Mon, 17 Aug 2026 10:09:59 GMT Michael Ombogo Five questions the desk put to itself on Monday, answered only with what printed. Wheat added 5.1% in one session. What moved? CBOT wheat closed at 686 US cents a bushel against 652.75 the session before, a 5.1% jump that works out at 252 USD per tonne. No fresh Black Sea export restriction, no GASC… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/notebook-five-places-16-august-2026-08-16/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/notebook-five-places-16-august-2026-08-16/ Sun, 16 Aug 2026 09:55:30 GMT Michael Ombogo A grain pit that moved nearly ten per cent, a refinery under drone attack, a count suspended, and two tyre stories pointing in opposite directions. Chicago Wheat did the thing it does about twice a year. The front CBOT contract settled at 689.5 cents a bushel against 630.25 the session before, a ris… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/wire-brief-15-august-the-pump-falls-the-barrel-doesn-t-2026-08-15/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/wire-brief-15-august-the-pump-falls-the-barrel-doesn-t-2026-08-15/ Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:54:07 GMT Michael Ombogo Friday's tape split the oil complex in two, put seven per cent on Chicago wheat and left a London warehouse fight running into the weekend. Gasoline sheds 7.4 per cent while crude adds 0.9 RBOB settled at 2.9044 USD/gal, down from 3.1354, a 7.4 per cent fall worth roughly 83 dollars a tonne on the 1… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/paired-off-sixty-million-tonnes-behind-one-strait-2026-08-14/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/paired-off-sixty-million-tonnes-behind-one-strait-2026-08-14/ Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:37:25 GMT Michael Ombogo Five pairs of numbers today, each one arguing with the other half of itself. The tape was quiet in fertilizer and loud in gasoline, which is roughly the opposite of what the forecasts say should happen. Forty-five million tonnes against a flat tape CoBank's Knowledge Exchange put the arithmetic of t… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/letter-two-berths-at-novorossiysk-2026-08-13/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/letter-two-berths-at-novorossiysk-2026-08-13/ Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:41:54 GMT Michael Ombogo Novorossiysk did most of the talking this week, and it did it by going quiet. Two grain terminals at Russia's main Black Sea outlet suspended operations after overnight Ukrainian drone attacks, with a combined export capacity of 15.6 million tonnes. Novorossiysk Grain Terminal, 8.5 million tonnes a… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/three-things-two-coastlines-and-a-ballot-2026-08-12/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/three-things-two-coastlines-and-a-ballot-2026-08-12/ Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:39:55 GMT Michael Ombogo East Africa acquired a second refining plan this month, Zambia votes tomorrow with copper at the edge of its record, and Indonesia has just asked the phosphate market for nearly a million tonnes. Three things worth the ink today. 1. Tanzania answers Lamu with a hub at Tanga On 6 August the Tanzania… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/ranked-the-day-in-percentage-points-2026-08-10/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/ranked-the-day-in-percentage-points-2026-08-10/ Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:49:20 GMT Michael Ombogo Some days the story is in the ranking. Monday's screen sorted itself into an odd order: a soft commodity on top, the barrel splitting in two directions, and the metal everyone is watching quietly giving a little back three days before a Zambian election. 1. Sugar, +8.4% Raw sugar number 11 went from… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/five-questions-on-a-ten-per-cent-day-2026-08-08/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/five-questions-on-a-ten-per-cent-day-2026-08-08/ Sat, 08 Aug 2026 10:08:22 GMT Michael Ombogo One market moved almost ten per cent on Friday and it was not copper, wheat or crude. Below, the five questions the tape asked, answered in the order they mattered. Sugar rose 9.9 per cent in a session. On what? Raw sugar #11 settled at 16.49 US cents a pound, up from 15.01, which puts the flat pric… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/day-book-7-august-wheat-walks-away-from-its-own-war-2026-08-07/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/day-book-7-august-wheat-walks-away-from-its-own-war-2026-08-07/ Fri, 07 Aug 2026 10:32:13 GMT Michael Ombogo Five entries in the book today, in the order the desk took them. A shipping war that the wheat price refuses to price, a Congolese decree with real tonnages behind it, and a gasoline contract that fell 9 per cent in a session while diesel did not move at all. Wheat is losing the argument with its ow… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/acid-test-kolwezi-is-paying-1-300-a-tonne-2026-08-07/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/acid-test-kolwezi-is-paying-1-300-a-tonne-2026-08-07/ Fri, 07 Aug 2026 01:11:06 GMT Michael Ombogo The bottleneck in copper this quarter is not a pit wall or a permit. It is a tanker of sulphuric acid arriving late in Katanga, and the price of that arriving late is now printed: over $1,300 a tonne delivered into Kolwezi, net of taxes. PrintLastChange Copper (COMEX)14,786 USD/t (6.707 USD/lb)+3.0%… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/long-file-north-of-bab-el-mandeb-is-not-sanctuary-2026-08-05/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/long-file-north-of-bab-el-mandeb-is-not-sanctuary-2026-08-05/ Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:43:35 GMT Michael Ombogo The long file: the war-risk map moves 1,200 miles north Houthi forces say they hit the Saudi-flagged product tanker NCC Wafa (IMO 9688348) with ballistic missiles off Yanbu, in the northern Red Sea, and that this is the eighth Saudi oil tanker targeted since a blockade declared on 22 July, with 29 m… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/wire-brief-uranium-in-the-cobalt-bags-2026-08-04/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/wire-brief-uranium-in-the-cobalt-bags-2026-08-04/ Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:46:50 GMT Michael Ombogo Tuesday, 4 August 2026 KINSHASA A study circulating this week says cobalt shipments leaving the Democratic Republic of Congo for China may have carried up to 5,000 tonnes of uranium, riding along in hydroxide and concentrate destined for refineries that never contracted for it. The commercial conseq… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/three-files-and-a-tape-india-comes-back-for-1-7-million-tonn-2026-08-03/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/three-files-and-a-tape-india-comes-back-for-1-7-million-tonn-2026-08-03/ Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:46:55 GMT Michael Ombogo Nitrogen buyers have spent eight weeks staring at a flat screen. India has just given them something to do, and the price panel has barely blinked. India is back in the market for 1.7 million tonnes India has issued its first urea import tender in two months, seeking 1.7 million tonnes of granular,… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/desk-note-a-cordon-around-the-copperbelt-2026-08-02/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/desk-note-a-cordon-around-the-copperbelt-2026-08-02/ Sun, 02 Aug 2026 11:06:07 GMT Michael Ombogo Three of the desk's nine prints moved on Sunday, and the two that moved hardest were oil and copper. Brent went from 84.09 to 90.12 dollars a barrel, a 7.2% session. COMEX copper added 2.3% to 6.4655 a pound. Wheat went the other way, losing 3.5% to 639.25 cents. Cobalt, urea, DAP, palm oil and the… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/five-questions-who-owns-the-cobalt-company-by-christmas-2026-08-01/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/five-questions-who-owns-the-cobalt-company-by-christmas-2026-08-01/ Sat, 01 Aug 2026 11:03:52 GMT Michael Ombogo Saturday, 1 August. A cobalt producer buys itself four months, the Gulf reminds tanker owners who sets the route, and the exchange that lists metal brands wants to do it twice as fast. Who owns a 99-year-old cobalt company by Christmas? Not settled, and that is the point. Sherritt International rebu… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/stock-check-102-000-tonnes-and-falling-2026-07-31/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/stock-check-102-000-tonnes-and-falling-2026-07-31/ Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:42:36 GMT Michael Ombogo The copper that is no longer in the warehouse Available copper in London Metal Exchange sheds has halved inside a fortnight. On-warrant stocks fell to 102,000 tonnes, the lowest since January, on BMO Capital Markets numbers, and the cash-to-three-month spread flipped into backwardation on 21 July fo… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/six-prints-grain-puts-on-armour-plating-2026-07-30/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/six-prints-grain-puts-on-armour-plating-2026-07-30/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:33:22 GMT Michael Ombogo Thursday's tape, read through six numbers. 683 cents Chicago wheat closed at 683 US cents a bushel, up 3.5% from 660 the session before, and the reason is floating in the Sea of Azov. Russian officials are weighing whether to fit civilian grain carriers with armour plating, sandbags, anti-drone mesh… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/corridor-notes-bedi-port-to-the-copperbelt-2026-07-29/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/corridor-notes-bedi-port-to-the-copperbelt-2026-07-29/ Wed, 29 Jul 2026 11:45:29 GMT Michael Ombogo Wednesday 29 July 2026. DAP $800/t, up 1.9%. Brent $88.11, down 9% on the day. Wheat 660 c/bu. Bedi Port, Gujarat India has suspended exports of elemental sulphur, with no published order and a market that has simply understood that refiners cannot ship until further notice. The volume at stake is m… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/wire-brief-lusaka-wants-an-exchange-katanga-wants-a-list-2026-07-28/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/wire-brief-lusaka-wants-an-exchange-katanga-wants-a-list-2026-07-28/ Tue, 28 Jul 2026 20:15:07 GMT Michael Ombogo Tuesday 28 July 2026. Copper 6.336 USD/lb, cobalt unchanged at 56,290 USD/t, Brent 83.86. LUSAKA, A continental metals exchange enters a manifesto Jito Kayumba, adviser to President Hakainde Hichilema on finance and investment, said Zambia intends to spearhead a pan-African minerals and metals excha… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/column-india-would-rather-build-its-own-urea-2026-07-28/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/column-india-would-rather-build-its-own-urea-2026-07-28/ Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:39:32 GMT Michael Ombogo Tuesday, 28 July 2026 The biggest fertilizer number of the week came out of a cabinet room in Delhi, and it will be read in Ruwais, Mesaieed and Sohar long before it is read in Indian fields. Ten million tonnes, eight or nine plants India's Union Cabinet has approved NIPU-2026, its first dedicated u… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/dossier-kinshasa-borrows-dollars-at-eight-percent-2026-07-27/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/dossier-kinshasa-borrows-dollars-at-eight-percent-2026-07-27/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:46:30 GMT Michael Ombogo The file: Kinshasa sells dollars to itself The Democratic Republic of Congo goes to its own investors tomorrow with a dollar-denominated Treasury bond. The finance ministry is asking for 40 million dollars over two years at 8% annual interest, with bids due at noon on 28 July, principal amortised ev… https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/q-a-kinshasa-takes-the-pen-lloyd-s-takes-the-exit-2026-07-26/ https://ombogojr.com/digest/e/q-a-kinshasa-takes-the-pen-lloyd-s-takes-the-exit-2026-07-26/ Sun, 26 Jul 2026 21:57:21 GMT Michael Ombogo What exactly did Kinshasa hand itself on Saturday? The power to legislate alone for the length of the parliamentary recess. Senators voted the enabling bill in second reading on 25 July at the Palais du Peuple, after the National Assembly passed it the day before, and the text has gone to Félix Tshi…